Property Types Retail
The Trends: Gloomy Confidence Pummels Transaction Value
Nov 11, 2008
By: Coreen Bailor, Research Editor

The shaky economy has bruised the retail sector, as jittery consumers keep a tight rein on their expenditures and investors examine the market with a more cautious eye. To that end, third-quarter retail property sales transactions totaled $3.4 billion, a staggering, year-over-year drop of 80 percent, according to a Real Capital Analytics Inc. Capital Trends Monthly report. In fact, sales volume for the entire year will probably come in lower than that tallied during just the first half of 2007.

The number of deals also fell considerably, down 70 percent from the same period a year ago, to 283. Of those, 140 were mall transactions, a 76 percent year-over-year drop, and 143 were strip center sales, a 70 percent skid. “Investment trends for strip centers are quite negative and among the poorest of all property types,” the report stated. “Surprisingly, anchored strips have seen cap rates rise much higher than for unanchored properties. Single-tenant retail is a relative bright spot among retail properties.”

The report also slotted the top retail players in the third quarter. CB Richard Ellis Inc., NAI Global, Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services Inc., Grubb & Ellis Co. and Cushman Wakefield Inc. were the top five brokers; Publix Super Markets Inc., Millbrook Properties Ltd., Pep Boys, Terramar Retail Centers and Senior Housing Properties Trust made up the top five buyers; and Acadia Realty Trust, Albertsons Inc., Klaff Realty L.P., Life Time Fitness Inc. and Pritzker Realty Group L.P. formed the top five sellers.



 
Recent Retail Headlines
Dollar Retailing Seeing Good Times
The Dow Jones index took something of a dive yesterday, possibly because of ill tidings from the likes of Time Warner and Intel, or the anticipation of bad job market numbers, or maybe because it was time to yo-yo back to roughly where the market started at the beginning of the year. In any case, the Dow was down 245.40 points, or 2.72 percent, while the S&P 500 lost 3 percent exactly and the Nasdaq lost 3.23 percent.
Cushman Report: Even Manhattan Humbled in 2008 
After a steep decline in office rents and leasing activity at the end of 2008, many owners are attempting to lure tenants with aggressive deals, according to Cushman & Wakefield Inc.’s year-end report on the Manhattan office market.
The News: Holiday Fallout, Public Confidence, Debt Loom
Now that 2008 is mercifully behind the retail sector, the question of what should be on the radar for 2009 is front and center. Conversations with industry veterans and research suggest that consumer spending, the economic policies of the new president and Congress, and fallout from the holiday shopping season will shape the retail sector for at least the early part of the year.
Ken Riggs The Expert: Structural Shift on the Way
Projections that fourth-quarter-2008 holiday retail sales would usher in despair not seen since the Great Depression had everyone on pins and needles. Although November reports indicated that seasonally-adjusted retail sales, excluding automobiles, were down slightly more than 4 percent from year-ago sales, recent figures from the International Council of Shopping Centers show December comparable store sales to have declined by only 1 to 1.8 percent. From some of the pre-December sales-report jitters, I would not have been surprised to see retail spending fall 10 percent as 2008 came to a close!
No Bottom Yet for Residential Market
Despite poor consumer confidence and sour housing numbers, U.S. equity markets had a fairly positive day Tuesday, with the Dow Jones index ending up 184.46 points, or about 2.17 percent, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 2.44 percent and 2.67 percent, respectively.