Property Types Retail
Simon FFO Up, But Outlook Cautious
Nov 4, 2008
By: Michael Fickes, Contributing Correspondent

Simon Property Group said that funds from operations (FFO) for the first three quarters of 2008 increased 10.8 percent to $1.312 billion from $1.184 billion in the same period of 2007.

In a conference call relatively upbeat about 2008 but cautious about 2009, David Simon, firm chairman & CEO, said that while the weak economy has already begun to affect mall sales, the company has performed well so far this year. Simon even nudged the 2008 guidance for the year up into the range of $6.40 to $6.45 per share. “Our initial guidance for the year (2008) was $6.25 to $6.45, so we’ve increased the lower end,” he said.

At the same time, Simon noted that he anticipates a slower leasing environment next year. “We’ve been working on leasing and are ahead of where we were last year in managing upcoming lease expirations,” he told the conference call audience.

During the call, Simon also denied rumors that the firm is planning to acquire General Growth Properties, citing the likely size of such a deal and the state of the credit markets. "...[I]n the current environment, I cannot envision a set of circumstances that would result in such a transaction," he noted.

Currently, Simon Property Group regional malls are 92.5 percent leased, while its Premium Outlet Centers are 98.8 percent leased. Sales per square foot are up slightly for the year in both categories. Simon malls are averaging $493 per square foot, up 0.4 percent over last year, and the outlet centers are doing $520 per square foot, 4.2 percent higher than last year.

Looking forward, though, Simon plans to reduce capital expenditures significantly during 2009. With more than $900 million of cash in the bank, that could change if economic conditions improve. “Capital spending could increase opportunistically if the world stabilizes,” he said. “And I think the economy will stabilize next year, but we’re making plans as if it won’t.”

 
Recent Retail Headlines
Dollar Retailing Seeing Good Times
The Dow Jones index took something of a dive yesterday, possibly because of ill tidings from the likes of Time Warner and Intel, or the anticipation of bad job market numbers, or maybe because it was time to yo-yo back to roughly where the market started at the beginning of the year. In any case, the Dow was down 245.40 points, or 2.72 percent, while the S&P 500 lost 3 percent exactly and the Nasdaq lost 3.23 percent.
Cushman Report: Even Manhattan Humbled in 2008 
After a steep decline in office rents and leasing activity at the end of 2008, many owners are attempting to lure tenants with aggressive deals, according to Cushman & Wakefield Inc.’s year-end report on the Manhattan office market.
The News: Holiday Fallout, Public Confidence, Debt Loom
Now that 2008 is mercifully behind the retail sector, the question of what should be on the radar for 2009 is front and center. Conversations with industry veterans and research suggest that consumer spending, the economic policies of the new president and Congress, and fallout from the holiday shopping season will shape the retail sector for at least the early part of the year.
Ken Riggs The Expert: Structural Shift on the Way
Projections that fourth-quarter-2008 holiday retail sales would usher in despair not seen since the Great Depression had everyone on pins and needles. Although November reports indicated that seasonally-adjusted retail sales, excluding automobiles, were down slightly more than 4 percent from year-ago sales, recent figures from the International Council of Shopping Centers show December comparable store sales to have declined by only 1 to 1.8 percent. From some of the pre-December sales-report jitters, I would not have been surprised to see retail spending fall 10 percent as 2008 came to a close!
No Bottom Yet for Residential Market
Despite poor consumer confidence and sour housing numbers, U.S. equity markets had a fairly positive day Tuesday, with the Dow Jones index ending up 184.46 points, or about 2.17 percent, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 2.44 percent and 2.67 percent, respectively.